All signs point to the next version of Windows running on ARM, the emerging global silicon standard for smartphones and tablets. But don't get too excited--it won't happen until 2012 at the earliest and just as likely not until 2013.
Not to rain too much on the Windows-on-ARM parade, but Windows on other platforms--such as outside of Intel's x86--has not fared well, either. Full-featured versions of Windows--what used to be called Windows NT--ran on PowerPC, MIPS, and Alpha processors. However, support for all three platforms was phased out. While certainly ARM holds more promise for Microsoft than DEC's Alpha technology ever did, it doesn't mean that Windows will necessarily be successful on ARM.
And that chance for success gets dimmer every month that Microsoft doesn't bring out a fully optimized version of Windows for tablets. So, the prospect of Windows 8 in 2012 will stick out as a symbol of WinTel's complacency. And how much bigger does Apple (which President Obama cited today in a news conference as an American success story) need to get before it begins to eclipse both of those companies, combined? We should know by 2012.
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